Tuesday, November 30, 2010

A Disaster Movie that would not play to script despite the smoking guns

- by BK Lim (Hydrocomgeo@gmail.com)  30 Nov 2010.

The biggest deception in the BP’s Mega Oil Spill disaster has been the existence of the third well (S20BC); the only well that actually reached BP’s targeted reservoir at 18,300 ft below mudline (bml). A gushing well drilled deep into the highly faulted fragile Gulf-Salt Geology would be difficult to kill even under the best of conditions. Of the 3 wells drilled, the shallowest and easiest well to kill (Well A) was chosen to be the star of the greatest magic show on earth; a multibillion “state of the art” Mass Deception Production that needed the full cooperation of the world’s most powerful government and main stream media to produce.

But the featured magic stunt was proving difficult to perform with an unwilling and unpredictable star well. Although drilled only 5000ft (13,000ft short of BP’s targeted oil reservoir), Well A is located in the vicinity of the intersection of a shallow E-W normal shallow fault and the major NW-SE strike-slip fault zone. Well B which was drilled deeper (13,300 ft bml) intercepted this E-W fault and the Rigel Gas reservoir. Therefore Well A is well-supplied with gas and oil from both faults as its last 1000ft (from 4000 – 5000ft bml) was never cased. Does this explain why Well A is so difficult to “kill”, especially with a >3,000 ft drill-string stuck at the bottom of the open well? 

Does the short and open bottom well explain the many mysteries of the leaking well? In particular, the low capped well pressure which maxed out at 6900 psi; far short of the expected pressure range of 8000-9000 psi. Or the mysterious 40% cement loss when 500 barrels of cement were pumped in for the top static kill on 3 Aug? All the unexplainable observations at Well A made no sense simply because it was not the 18,300ft well that reached the targeted reservoir. BP’s managers who knew the truth, must have laughed out their asses at the pro-BP Schills leading intricate expert discussions on how to kill the star well that never quite reach the reservoir. Now does that make sense?
Understandably Well A which was unceremoniously laid to rest on 8 Nov 2010, will not lay dead for long. A steady stream of gas bubbles, deep gashes around the wellhead, black clouds of oil seeping through the fault crevices and a couple of bulging mounds waiting to explode are reminders that the Zombie Well will spring back to life.

Meanwhile the real gusher well at S20BC marked by a giant solitary piled tombstone lays eerily silent in a middle of a devastated seafloor. Devoid of life, the wasted seabed scarred by trenches, scattered pieces of wrecks, potholes, craters and an artificial turf of cement-drilling mud mixture, is reminiscent of a bombed out battlefield. But is the gusher well really dead or has it morphed into a “multiple-headed hydra” deep beneath the seafloor that is even more difficult to kill.

BP’s simplistic and geologically unrealistic aim of plugging a single tubular hole in a solid mass of rocks is as unreal and unstable as a “sand castle on the beach”. After months of spewing a corrosive mix of gas, oil and brine into the fragile faulted Gulf Salt-Geology, even the most optimistic geologists would come to the grim conclusion that the 18,300 ft well is no longer the only vertical conduit out of the reservoir. In all probability, a complex multi-pathway monster (more akin to the mythical multi-headed Hydra that Heracles tried to slay) has developed in its place. As said many times before, there is simply no way to plug the genie back into the bottle.  

BP’s failure to stop oil and gas escaping from the reservoirs is confirmed by increased (not decreased) work activities at the Macondo site. Officially BP declared they were winding down and packing up after their purported successful permanent bottom kill by the relief well on 19 Sept.  Their “victory cry” rang hollow when an additional drilling rig (West Sirius) arrived without notice at the Macondo Site in mid October.

Why would 4 very expensive rigs, each costing more than 1 million USD/day, be milling around in the Macondo prospect after the MC252 Well was long declared dead?  Why should dozens of expensive vessels still be working with multi-million dollar ROVs scanning the dead seabed for signs of life, months after well A was capped and top-killed?  

Is such extravaganza on a dead well warranted? See the contradictions? Why spend tens of millions of dollars per day grouting, combing the seafloor just to observe a couple of eels, spraying chemicals (presumably dispersants) if the oil-gas leaks from the reservoirs had been successfully sealed? Why idle 4 expensive rigs (which were presumably not drilling) around a supposedly dead well?

BP had repeatedly said they would make it right. Yes, right by whom? On the other hand, you have millions of unpaid bills, thousands of unemployed gulf victims waiting in vain for their miserable compensation from BP’s 20 billion dollar fund and thousands of miles of abandoned oiled coastlines waiting for rehabilitation.  Does this sound right? The script of this disaster movie is getting more and more absurd by the day.

Shouldn’t the main stream media at least ask what the hell is going on at the Gulf? Their silence on the grieving Gulf is indeed deafening!  There are abundant contentions for investigative journalism. But where are the big boys?

Perhaps the script writer of this Disaster Movie got the script mixed up with the Cinderella Story? Lock up the Cinderella Gulf victims on the coast while the Evil BP Sisters vine and dine on the luxurious drilling rigs at sea. Or did the Marie Antoinette of BP Palace say “let them eat cakes”? Whatever it is, the dead corpses are beginning to stink. The script writers were running out of “spinning story lines” to explain the “rotting smell” coming out of the closet.

The nightmare tale of “BP’s Three Wishing Wells” is one of mega extremes. Plagued with massive cost over-runs, the ill-conceived B-rated movie production was forced to change its script each time Mother Nature refused to play ball. It is truly a mega-disaster movie of epic proportions, one with a predictably bad and sad ending for the victims of the gulf and Mother Nature as the impotent corrupted regulators watched helplessly on the side stage.

In the original script, the movie was supposed to have ended soon after the carnage of the disaster was exposed and the villains brought to justice. But the script changed to protect the villains when the hawks won over the boardroom. Instead of genuine recovery and containment efforts, the emphasis switched to covering up BP’s criminality and limiting their financial liabilities.

Why else would BP so readily declare that the relief wells would take more than 3 months to drill when 2 months would be more than sufficient? Although BP publicly displayed full confidence in killing the gushing well with their relief well efforts; privately they had reservations. The discrepancy between Publicly Displayed Confidence and Private Reservation is apparent from several angles. Would they have bought the additional buffer time so secretly if they were so confident of success, operation wise? An open heart surgery in full view of a live world audience would prove BP’s confidence and do wonders for BP’s stocks. On the other hand, unexplained covert relief well efforts with many reversals would make BP look BAD; a total mockery of BP’s professed guaranteed success.

But why would BP want to publicly flaunt the confidence they did not have?

Most independent experts rated the Relief Well Kill efforts to have less than 30% chance of success. Why would there be such a large disparity in predicted success rate? Previous relief well efforts in past disasters achieved their objectives of controlling and killing the wild wells after several failed attempts spanning several months.

So either BP was very na├»ve or the “race had been rigged” to produce the predicted winner. With little evidence of naivety, it was more likely the polls had been rigged to provide the right winning number. The evidence for this can be deciphered from the many discrepancies between BP’s mass destruction at site and “Bogus Good Intentions” made by BP.

Public confidence is an essential ingredient in any scam. Nobody had expected BP to be perfect in dealing with a mega disaster never experienced before. A 50% chance of success would have been perfectly acceptable. In trying to project 100% false confidence in an uncertain circumstance BP had only itself to blame for its relief well failures.

Many chapters of BP’s Art of Mass Deception manual had been heavily borrowed from the world’s financial bubbles guidebooks. Less than 2 months into the disaster, many independent observers were puzzled by BP’s inconsistent recovery efforts. BP’s capping and relief wells efforts were seen by many, as distractive magic shows. The deliberate efforts to cloud the situation with misinformation were clearly parts of BP’s scheme of Mass Deception. 

This could also mean that BP was getting less and less confident that the relief wells would work. The relief wells were held up as the last Trump card. If it fails in full (ROV) view of the concerned public throughout the world, BP’s shares would drop like a stone. There are good geological reasons why the chances of the relief wells’ success are less than 30%. But that would be in the next posting.

So instead “of going on a public stage with a final trump card of 30% chance of success” and risking everything BP stands for, a magic show will be set up so that what ever happens, it will be a success. How?

Deception is however a double edge sword. Coded errors are genetic finger-prints which provide valuable clues of bad intentions. Measured against standard professional practices, unethical misconducts stand out like sore thumbs beneath the charade.
The disconnect between the promulgated bogus “good intentions” and the actual mass destruction at ground zero (seafloor 5000ft below) is clearly documented by the ROV videos. Although adulterated, valuable information can still be deciphered from the video footages. By why adulterate the videos in the first place? It only meant that BP had a lot to hide.

To prevent uncensored versions and information from getting out, BP had to impose stringent security measures and heavy clampdown of “dissidents”. Unadulterated insiders’ videos had to be smuggled out using innovative means. If this is not an “Independent Police State” operating within the United States, then authoritarian states like North Korea and other of the world must be Freedom Paradises. What a paradox? The world’s foremost champion of freedom of information sanctioning pockets of “communist regimes” within her sovereign borders?

What are the chances of 3 accidental deaths of 3 prominent figures closely associated with the disaster in the last 3 months? The late Matt Simmons died in a hot water bath on 8 Aug; Ex-Senator Stevens in a plane crash in Alaska on 10 Aug and Jim Black, a BP incident commander for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill response team in a plane crash in Florida on 24 Nov 2010. No doubt more deaths will follow.

Perhaps crime does pay but only for those at the very top. The top engineers of the disaster have until today remained free and have gotten their luxurious yachting life back but not the millions who had been sentenced to a life of the walking dead. Thousands are thrown off their normal livelihood with no means of getting them back. But for the perpetrators of the crime of the century, they were amply rewarded with golden parachutes. Heck, this is more rewarding than big time bank robberies. So watch out for more “block buster” mega disasters in the near future. Which unscrupulous criminal wouldn’t? State-sponsored” crimes of mass destruction carried out with impunity.

Of course these crimes of mass destruction could not have materialized if the internal check and balance had not been compromised; if not for lapses of judgment, compromised principles and integrity, corruptions and expediency at every level of planning and operation within the industry. Industrial safety standards would not have deteriorated to this low level if only the general population had been more concerned and better informed. Oil companies like BP should not be left to their own devices. Like financial bubbles, these white collar crimes of mass destruction will “bubble and burst” if they are allowed to proliferate with impunity. The most favorite excuse of all time: no concrete evidence of wrong doing.

Well how concrete do you want the evidence to be? We have already seen video images of the giant solitary piled (concrete) tombstone for the third missing well (S20BC). We have already presented images of large scale mass destruction at the Macondo site. Concrete evidences of increased work activities like grouting were recorded long after the Macondo well was declared dead. This was contrary to BP’s own declared intention of winding down the “killing works” after the reportedly “successful top static kill” on 2 Aug. The forensic analyses of the Deepwater Horizon wreckage, BP’s Macondo bathymetry chart and geohazards assessment showed that all the irregularities and inconsistencies could not have been accidental mistakes. Nobody especially a technological giant with thousands of technical experts could be that STUPID. The trail of premeditated, cleverly disguised “mistakes” can only lead to one conclusion; willful negligence and greed.

If the tens of pages of documented evidence are too tedious to read, just consider the most recent blatant lie by BP. Main stream media all over the world reported BP’s press statement that the relief well finally intercepted the rogue well on 15 Sept after months of waiting just 10 feet from the well. With that, BP declared the crisis to be finally over and the world rewarded BP with a price hike in BP’s stock.  

Now for what obvious reason would BP need to lie about the relief well intercept? Although we have long suspected the relief well fiasco much earlier in July, there was a need to keep “radio silence” for obvious reasons. We could only start releasing the concrete ROV evidence in The Hole Truth Nothing But The Truth On The 3rd Hole from 15 Nov 2010 onwards, after BP had clearly shown their “cards”.

Recent insiders’ information also confirmed that Relief Well C had indeed intercepted the rogue well in the first week of July 2010.  Figure 139-1 shows the smoking gun of the third well (S20BC). Were the relief well efforts to kill the rogue well unsuccessful as predicted by independent experts in the first week of July? BP obviously could not show the “casing removal operation” video dated 29 July, as that would confirm the existence of the third missing well BP has denied since day 1. If the relief well had managed to stop the flow (as evident in the video), surely it would have been advantageous for BP to announce it. That was precisely the problem BP faced with the magic show at well A. BP cannot show the oil leak from the reservoir has been licked while enormous amount of oil clouds was still spewing uncontrollably through the crevices in the fault zones.
See segment 3:38-5:50 of the 10:33 mins video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0u9bT7VbK0.The incriminating video segment had to be embedded between the publicly broadcasted video to escape detection.

BP realised then, their bottom kill by the relief wells would not work as many had earlier feared. Was their silence on the relief well efforts a tacit admission of defeat? Two and a half (2 ½ months) is a long delay by any standard.

Was the sudden announcement that “the well was finally intercepted and permanently killed” on 19 Sept compelled by political pressure before the mid-term election?  Given BP’s admission that the bottom Kill operation required weeks of logistic preparation and analytical calculations, wasn’t the surprised 19 Sept Announcement a “prepack virtual instant kill”; only to be microwaved for serving at a moment notice. That surprised announcement of success took the wind out of BP’s fans who had been waiting anxiously for months to see the exciting grand finale. Suddenly they were told the final match was over. Many felt cheated and disappointed as was Thad Allen who had announced a week earlier, the grand finale postponement. So much for BP’s promise of transparency and accountability. Obviously Thad Allen was not the one calling the shot. Who would want his own credibility shot to pieces, by announcing the week before that the permanent kill via the relief well intercept would not happen until mid October due to “undisclosed problems”?

Was the fanatic extensive grouting effort during the 2 ½ months before the final announcement on 19 Sept anything to do with the extensive oil spewing out of the crevices in the fault zones?  

The evidence seems to suggest this was indeed the case. Five days after the 29 July “Well Casing Removal OPS”, the rogue 3rd well was actively spewing coloured fluid again on 3 Aug. What happened on 2 Aug? What triggered the shallow Mag 3 Earthquake at Louisiana on 2 Aug? Coincidentally BP started pumping in cement to “static top kill” Well A on 3 Aug. Does this confirm the fault connection between Well A and the third well at S20BC?  

With all the mysteries and coincidental fantasies, this disaster movie is as credible asAlice in Wonderland”. With all these discrepancies and outright lies, can we ever trust BP or any other oil company again?

No crime is ever committed without motives. Disasters do not occur out of the blue without the seeds of destruction being sowed first. Half-baked and blinded investigation in the BP’s mega oil spill disaster will just sow the seeds for future disasters. Unfortunately both the BP’s official and the Presidential Investigations seem to be just that; a blinded and half-baked investigative show to absolve BP of criminality and limit BP’s financial liability. Both investigation reports never mentioned the 2nd or 3rd wells despite the overwhelming evidences. Any investigation which does not address the obvious damage to the well casing seen in figure 139-1 would be as trustworthy as a fox guarding the chicken coop. Would it be any surprise the main stream media are just as loudly silent on the injustices done to the Gulf Victims and Mother Nature?

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